Forecast Track Record
Transparency Through Continuous Evaluation & Measurable Results
At Total Markets™, we believe investment research should be judged not only by the quality of its analysis, but also by the transparency and consistency of its published forecasts.
Financial markets are inherently uncertain, and no forecasting methodology is perfect. Rather than claiming to predict every market movement accurately, we publish our market outlooks in advance, update them monthly as market conditions evolve, and then openly compare them with the subsequent market developments.
Every forecast presented on this page was originally published before the market developments shown below occurred and can be verified in the corresponding original report.
Forecast Track Record
The table below presents selected forecasts from our previously published Investment Strategy & Market Outlook Reports after sufficient time has elapsed to allow an objective comparison with subsequent market developments. A downloadable version of the table is available for mobile users here.
Assessment Definitions
Broadly Consistent - The market developed broadly in line with our published outlook within the stated investment horizon.
Partly Consistent - The overall direction or timing differed partially from our expectations, while the underlying market thesis remained broadly valid.
Not Consistent - The market developed materially differently from our published outlook.
Pending - The stated investment horizon has not yet elapsed and the forecast cannot yet be compared objectively with actual market developments.
Why Some Forecasts Remain Pending
Our reports are published monthly, while individual forecasts may have expected investment horizons ranging from several months to several years.
Accordingly, forecasts are compared with actual market developments only after sufficient time has elapsed to allow a fair and objective assessment.
Looking for the Complete Reports?
This page presents selected forecasts together with their subsequent market developments. The complete Investment Strategy & Market Outlook Reports include:
- Market analysis
- Strategic asset allocation
- Model portfolio
- Confidence assessments
- Investment rationale
These reports are available through our 12-Month Research Archive in the publications page.
➡ Explore our publications page
Continuous Improvement
Markets evolve continuously as economic conditions, monetary policy, technological developments, corporate earnings, and geopolitical events change.
Accordingly, our Monthly Investment Strategy & Market Outlook Reports provide updated assessments each month, while this page maintains a transparent historical record of selected published forecasts and the market developments that followed.
We believe transparency, accountability, and continuous improvement are essential characteristics of independent investment research.
